Indicators of Financial Instability

Authors

  • John Lodewijks School of Economics University of New South Wales
  • Mehdi Monadjemi School of Economics University of New South Wales
Abstract:

A global Slowdown, rising oil prices, and monetary tightening in industrial countries may lead to net capital outflows which accentuate high ratios of short-term to total external debt. This paper focuses on finding consistent indicators of financial instability. Knowledge of these indicators should assist attempts to implement institutional financial reform and improve an economy's resilience to shocks. It is highly useful to provide policy-makers with tools that measure financial crises, and in particular, to examine how macroeconomic aggregates behave during episodes of financial instability cycles. This is the objective of what follows and these indicators signal the variables that need to be monitored for effective policy responses to emerging financial difficulties.JEL Classification: G1

Upgrade to premium to download articles

Sign up to access the full text

Already have an account?login

similar resources

Modelling Financial Instability

Financial instability can have large adverse effects on an economy. One major cause of instability is asset price bubbles. This paper starts by considering how such bubbles can arise due to the expansion of money and credit. The ways in which subsequent financial instability occurs are then discussed. Banking crises can arise due to panics or as a result of the business cycle. Contagion and fin...

full text

Deterministic Dynamics in Financial Indicators?

We show that standard financial indicators may not be adequately described with linear stochastic methods. The data are consistent with what one would observe when the underlying system exhibits low dimensional deterministic nonlinear dynamics, albeit in addition to substantial high dimensional dynamics. Furthermore, nonlinear modeling algorithms at our disposal provide evidence of deterministi...

full text

Financial Instability and Economic Environment

In this paper we provide new evidence about the relationship between financial crises and economic situation for different countries which belong to the OECD and emergent economies of Latin America and Asia. The results show new support to the different influence of economic situation according to the type of financial crises. Aggregate data and panel techniques are used taking into account the...

full text

Financial Instability via Adaptive Learning

This paper develops a simple model in which adaptive learning by investors leads to recurrent booms and busts in asset prices. The model captures aspects of Minsky’s “financial instability hypothesis” in which periods of tranquility lead investors to increase their estimates of expected returns and reduce their estimates of return volatility. The changes of beliefs drive up asset prices and hen...

full text

A Leverage-Based Measure of Financial Instability

We employ a model of leverage-induced explosive behavior in financial markets to develop a measure of financial market instability. Specifically, we derive a quantitative condition for how large levered investors can become relative to the whole market before the demand curve for securities suddenly becomes upward-sloping and small price declines cascade as levered investors are forced to liqui...

full text

Instability of Financial Markets and Preference Heterogeneity

This paper presents a simple rational expectations model of intertemporal asset pricing relating instability of stock return characteristics to heterogeneity in investor preferences. Heterogeneity is likely to generate declining aggregate relative risk aversion. This leads to variability in expected asset returns, volatility, and autocorrelation. The stronger this variability is, the more heter...

full text

My Resources

Save resource for easier access later

Save to my library Already added to my library

{@ msg_add @}


Journal title

volume 5  issue None

pages  33- 46

publication date 2009-04

By following a journal you will be notified via email when a new issue of this journal is published.

Keywords

Hosted on Doprax cloud platform doprax.com

copyright © 2015-2023